Jockbrokers Fantasy Market Watch 10-5-14
I apologize for the delayed market watch this week. However, the market tip I am going to drop for you is probably the best tip I have ever given, so hopefully this powerful information will make up for the delay. Without any further buildup, here is the tip:
Buy aging stars. For every young exciting player I have mentioned as a good buy in the market, and for every player who is going to earn big seasonal bonuses as a young emerging star, there are also many busts, or unexpected injuries that shorten a career. Look at the sad story of David Wilson. The best way to avoid this risk, is to buy the much less exciting players who are already locked in to their roles on the team, and who have cemented a “floor” to their value. Players who already have earned a hall of fame bonus are guaranteed to pay out that level, so there is no risk of them ever being worth less than that amount. All you have to do is own the share when that player retires.
The best example of this is Santana Moss. Why the heck would you want to buy Santana Moss for the $60 he just sold for? He hasn’t even played a down this year! Because he was an AMAZING buy at that amount. Santana Moss is guaranteed a $70 payout based on the stats he has earned over his career, with 14.1 yards per reception, 722 catches and 10167 yards. With Moss not being active on game days this year, it sounds like he is thinking about retirement after the year. This means that $60 purchase nets you a 15% increase in your money over the span of a NFL season. All this with no risk. Moss would have to catch something like 60 more balls for a total of 0 yards to drop his yards per reception below the 13 YPR threshold to make him lose his $70 status. Another way to think about this would be to consider that if Moss retires at the end of the year after not even stepping on the field, he would pay out the equivalent of a max level seasonal bonus over your investment.
It’s not just Moss though. How about Reggie Wayne? Reggie Last sold at $120, and is currently available at $135. Seems like a good bargain for one of the greatest WR’s ever to play the game. Even better considering he is locked in at the $100 level, and is just FIFTY yards away from the $150 level! WOW. He is 36, and this may be his last year. If he plays another year beyond this, he has a legitimate shot at the $200 level, as he is 64 catches, and 1,050 yards away. Yeah, he is a big investment to get started, but where else in the market can get a guaranteed return like this? You are making a minimum of $15 by buying Wayne and simply waiting.
Those are two GREAT buys, but this strategy is far from limited to WR’s. How about one of the greatest rushing QB’s ever to play the game? Mike Vick last sold for $130. He is currently available at $135. Vick is currently sitting at the $100 bonus level. However, with 140 more rushing yards, he is now worth $150 dollars. He is also just 1,140 yards away from the $200 level. Considering the weak grasp Geno Smith seems to have on the starting job in New York, it is more likely than not that he will reach the $150 level. Vick has never had a season where he started more than one game in which he had under 250 yards rushing. Without a great resurgence in his level of play the $200 level simply isn’t realistic. However, you are talking again about a $20 or 15% gain, for simply waiting for someone to retire. The risk on this player is incredibly low.
This strategy isn’t limited inside the NFL either. The same theory can be applied to the MLB. Take a look at Albert Pujols- Pujols is finally trading closer to his value at $147. Pujols is signed all the way through 2021, and already qualifies at the $100 level on homer’s batting average, and RBI’s. If Pujols can have decent production for even a few more years, he is going to blow away the $200 table for a nice $50 gain. He only needs 80 more home runs to qualify for level 1. On homers alone he should be there in only 2 and a half seasons. That doesn’t even take into the equation his ability to make the tables with Run’s and RBI’s. All in all, it makes Pujols probably the safest buy on the baseball market.
Finally in the NBA there is the aging superstar, who is a lock to earn you bonuses, while making you money long term, and the best buy on the entire Jockbrokers market. Lebron James. James is locked in to the $70 level at the ancient age of 29. He is currently selling for $125. If Lebron never played another basketball game you would be out $50. Or you can enjoy Lebrons current levels of production, and watch him blow away the top level of the basketball table and be worth $200 in 3 years on points and assists alone. He also is close to qualifying at the top level on steals and 3 points as well, so the paths for him to get there are quite numerous. I said this long ago when Lebron was entering free agency, but there is simply no better buy on the market than Lebron. The expected returns on Lebron vs his potential risk is simply astronomical.
The only thing holding down these players is the cost of entry. However, I firmly believe you shouldn’t let that stop you. One share of Lebron is almost certainly better than 125 shares of athletes worth $1 each. Even if all you do in your portfolio is buy one share of these aging superstars, you will be very far ahead of the game! This list is not just limited to these players. There are many more aging vets out there in the market that have great value over the long term.
Full Disclosure- I own shares of Lebron James, Mike Vick, Santana Moss, and Reggie Wayne
For those of you who aren’t familiar with Jockbrokers- it’s the next big thing in fantasy sports. Jockbrokers is a sports market where you can buy and sell shares in pro athletes and be paid based on their performance on the field. Traders enjoy payouts monthly, yearly, and when an athlete retires. For more detailed information, please check out the link here: https://jockbrokers.com/introduction/ or contact the helpful folks at CSM@jockbrokers.com