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Jockbrokers Fantasy Market Watch 1-20-15

By on January 20, 2015

Leading into every season, there are low price players trading at under $2 who could be moving into different/better roles all along the market. Typically, if I see an uptick in a players potential playing time, stadium or team improvement, potential change in hitting order, etc, and the players cost is $1 or under, I will buy them regardless of past performance, even though the risk of these players can be quite high, or if the conventional logic says otherwise. The key is making sure you buy as many different players with these potential changes helping their performance as possible. If you do that, this almost always ends up paying off, as long as you invest in enough low cost players, you are bound to “hit” on a breakout or bounceback guy, and make a huge sum of money. I believe this strategy will stand the test of time at Jockbrokers, and it works because of the reasons below.

Reason #1- The cost of entry is so low on these players, that it allows much more room for growth. Lets use football as an example. Dez Bryant had a GREAT nfl season. He has already been established as one of the best in the NFL, so he was selling for just under $40 at the end of last year. Fast forward to this year, and he paid out a huge $10 bonus, and was arguably the best WR in the nfl, but still sold for just over $41, and can currently be bought for $45. Contrast this with Justin Forsett, who was purchased for $0.25 early in the season, and sold for $5 later on in the season, or Odell Beckham who saw his share price rise from $1.50 to $10 over the year. Neither of these players earned as big of a bonus as Dez, but their share value rose much more due to the lower cost of entry. These huge returns can generally only be found on low cost players. Higher cost players values tend to rise in price much slower.

Reason #2- If you “hit” on one of these players, the payouts can be greater than the cost of the player, even if they only produce for one month. When I buy a share of Mike Trout, I need him to perform for the entire year to get a good percentage of his money back that he earned. If he gets hurt, or underperforms his share price stagnates, and I don’t earn much of a bonus either. However, when I bought shares of Chris Carter, for under $0.50 each, all I needed was his great August and he paid me DOUBLE what I paid for him. That means he not only paid for himself in just one month of production, but also paid for some of my risks that did not pay off. Even if they only earn a $0.25 bonus over a month, you are cutting into the cost of owning these players by such a huge amount compared to what you paid into them. This is not hard to do, I was able to find all kinds of gems by doing this strategy. Also unlike fantasy sports that only pay you once for being right- you get to keep the players! If they do it again the next year, you are in the money once again.

Reason #3- You don’t even need them to be good to make money on them! If a sportswriter talks about a player as a “breakout” candidate, the value of that player is probably going to increase as more and more people jump on the bandwagon. Examples of this are harder to find, as I tend to hold instead of sell into the hype, but Xander Bogarts and Starlin Castro are great examples of this. Last year I bought Bogarts at release, and sold him into the hype at $4 a share. I bought Starlin after his terrible season, and sold him at $5 a share in the hype leading up to the season. This year, I’m already buying both again, and have already sold a share of Starlin back for even more profit.

Reason #4- If you are wrong and your player sucks or gets hurt, it costs you almost nothing. Investing in a major well known flop like RG3 costs you a bunch of money. My 15 shares of RG3 cost me 235.75. That is a huge chunk of change to have on a player that might be worth 0 in the long run. My 44 shares of Jason Castro on the other hand cost me $31.15. Which flop would you rather have?

Reason #5- You can own way more shares in lower priced guys than higher priced guys. Chris Tillman will probably never put up Clayton Kershaw’s numbers. However, Tillman last traded at $0.50, and Kershaw last traded at $100. I can buy 200 shares of Tillman for that price. If Tillman only earns $1 like he did last year, and Kershaw earns a max level bonus for 5 straight months, as well as a seasonal bonus of $10, I will come out $160 ahead at the end of the season on Tillman. Obviously that is a bit of an extreme example, but it shows the point that these lower priced guys can come up with some huge values for you.

Reason #6- You can’t hit a home run without swinging. Do you really want to be the guy who didn’t buy Jose Altuve last year because $1 was too expensive? He earned 5.25 per share in bonuses last year, and last sold at $10. I have literally made $212 off of Altuve in bonuses, and selling shares in the past year, and I still own 19 shares of him. That $212 has subtracted what it cost me to acquire him as well. If Altuve never hits another baseball, I can be pretty happy with that payout. Where else can I earn that kind of money? You certainly can’t do it only buying the known studs. Now is the time to find this years Jose Altuve!

Keep in mind, these players are low cost players for a reason. Generally speaking, their past production or last season left some major doubt onto if they can be a valuable part of the market. By using this scattershot method of buying “all” the guys who have some hope of a breakout, you are much more likely to hit. You can’t get rich only buying the guys everyone already knows are great. You have to unearth some hidden gems. This is not the only strategy I use for buying players leading up into the season, but it is a very interesting one, and one I think you should add into your own mix of strategies.

For those of you who aren’t familiar with Jockbrokers- it’s the next big thing in fantasy sports. Jockbrokers is a sports market where you can buy and sell shares in pro athletes and be paid based on their performance on the field. Traders enjoy payouts monthly, yearly, and when an athlete retires. For more detailed information, please check out the link here: https://jockbrokers.com/introduction/ or contact the helpful folks at CSM@jockbrokers.com

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