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EARLY NFL player release list! Blog exclusive

By on August 4, 2015

Hi All- To avoid being accused of burying the headline- here are the proposed released players for the NFL leagues year! These are subject to change due to availability of player cards or injury, but almost all of these players should be included. Analysis of what this might mean for the market and these players are below.

First Last POS
Marcus Mariota QB
Jameis Winston QB
Derek Carr QB
Isaiah Crowell RB
Latavius Murray RB
David Johnson RB
Todd Gurley RB
C.J. Anderson RB
Melvin Gordon RB
T.J. Yeldon RB
Bishop Sankey RB
Jeremy Hill RB
Devonta Freeman RB
Joique Bell RB
Jordan Matthews WR
Amari Cooper WR
Kevin White WR
Jarvis Landry WR
Allen Robinson WR
Julius Thomas TE
Virgil Green TE
Zach Ertz TE
Travis Kelce TE
DeAndre Levy DEF
Leonard Williams DEF
Vic Beasley DEF
Eric Kendricks DEF
Landon Collins DEF
Paul Worrilow DEF
Lavonte David DEF
Justin Houston DEF

Starting at the top we have the Quarterbacks. Honestly one word sums them up for me and that word is DISASTER. Winston is clearly in the best position to succeed of the three in my opinion, with loads of talent around him. However, he is just awful. I am not sure what games Tampa was watching when they made him the first overall pick, but they weren’t anything I was. Mariotta on the other hand is a great player in waiting in my opinion, but unlike Justin (radio host and owner of Jockbrokers) I think he landed in the worst position imaginable. His lead receivers if the season began today are Hakeem Nicks and Kendall Wright. Wow. Just wow. Don’t worry- That running game will be handled by one of the worst lines in the NFL. Mariotta probably won’t get beat up behind that terrible line either. I just don’t see the upside here. Finally, that leads us to David Carr (yes I know this is his brother). Here is where I’m probably going to lose most of you, but I believe his success last season was an absolute mirage. Let me explain. Carr is absolutely incapable of pushing the ball down the field. In Carr’s 599 attempts he passed for an amazing 3,270 yards. By amazing, I mean terrible. He averaged 5.46 yards per attempt last year good enough for 33rd out of 33 qualifying QBs. No worries though, that is only half a yard worse than 32nd’ Blake Bortles. Only over a yard worse than Josh Mccown, 31st in the NFL. Are you worried yet? Well with all that short passing, he had to have a great completion percentage right? Well not so much. 30th in the NFL with a 58% completion percentage. So we have a QB that can’t push the ball down the field, and also isn’t accurate. Where exactly is the upside? Even if the Raiders win 6 games, and he throws for 25% more yards and 25% more touchdowns, he would finish with -10 points on the jockbrokers table. Just how much better is he going to get?

There are a whole pile of running backs, which is great! I am only going to cover a few, the first of which is Todd Gurley. Let me tell you- He is the real deal. Take away the ACL, and we had a top 5 pick. Remember when Adrian Peterson fell to the vikings because of concerns about his injury history? We have the same deal here. Outside of Amari Cooper, I think he is the biggest lock of the incoming class. He also excels in the one thing that gets swept under the rug pass protection. He literally checks every box except the injury issue. Melvin Gordon on the other hand, has bust written all over him. Gordon is a pure runner only. I watched every Wisconsin game last year. He literally was an absolute 0 in the passing game. Both receiving and blocking. He also is competing with two pluses in the passing game Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead for third down snaps. How many times do you think they are going to let Gordon whiff in the passing game and get Rivers blow up before all he does is run the ball on first down? I just don’t think the upside is there for the cost I expect him to be.

Outside of the big name rookie RB’s, we have a couple big name vet backs coming out in CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill. C.J. Anderson was FANTASTIC down the stretch last year. However, I am terrified of buying him, because I think Ronnie Hillman, or a healthy Monte Ball could do the exact same. C.J. Anderson would have earned $1.50 in seasonal bonuses despite only having half the starts on the season. However, he was awful in pass protection, an area where Ball excels. The good news for us, is that we will have the whole pre-season to try to figure out if CJ is actually “the” guy before we bid. If he is “the” guy- he should be great. Jeremy Hill on the other hand is a guy I am absolutely all in on. He is heads and shoulders above Giovanni Bernard, and would have had a huge bonus if he didn’t fumble 5 times last year. I expect him to improve quite a bit in all categories, and the fumbling isn’t necessarily a big issue, as generally the stat is pretty random. Of the guys coming out this year, I think Hill has the best chance to be a 5+ $ player in 2015.

The WR class we have coming out isn’t quite as big as the running backs, but man do we have some big names. The two rookie gems are Amari Cooper and Kevin White. Cooper is a rock solid “can’t miss” NFL prospect. Now that might be the kiss of death, and if it’s not David Carr might be. However I think his talent can win out. He is really that good. I look at him as a Julio Jones/ AJ green type prospect. The only issue here might be the price. I can easily see him releasing at the same price as current NFL elite WR’s. The great thing about the Jockbrokers IPR system though is if they are too expensive, you simply don’t need to get them. Coopers counterpart, Kevin White is also a rock solid stud in my opinion, though not quite as much polish on his game as Cooper. He might develop a bit slow to the NFL. He also has a current foot issue, that sounds quite a bit like a really scary injury. This in all likely hood will push his value to great value range, as long as you are willing to wait until after 2015 for the bonuses.

I’m not going to talk a ton about the veteran WR’s, because I really don’t know what to think here. Matthews was great last year, but he was great as a slot reciever with Maclin eating up coverage. I think Matthews will be just fine still, but I can’t be sure of that. Landry was a pure slot reciever last year. If thats all he will be, there probably isn’t a ton of value to him on the jockbrokers market. He didn’t come close to sniffing a bonus last year, finishing with -456 points. Even if you take away his 7 fumbles, he finished with 244 points falling well short of a bonus. However- if Landry makes the leap to start running down field routes he might really be something special. Finally, you have Robinson who I think is great. However, his QB is Blake Bortles, who I think is awful. So what do we make of this? Traders will simply have to decide.

The tight end group we have is just freaking awesome! We have Julias Thomas, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, who are all great. Then we have Virgil Green, who you might not have heard off, but in theory should pick up right where Julias Thomas left off in Denver. Thomas of course was amazing in every game he played last year, earning a $1 seasonal bonus despite missing all of 6 games and many parts of others. Traders will have to decide if that production can continue in Jacksonville. Kelce and Ertz both would have missed bonuses last year, but flashed signs of being the next elite group of tight ends. If they can make the jump, they will pay for themselves in a hurry!

Now for the most exciting group of players in my opinion- the defenders! Now the defensive table was very tough last year. However entering the market we have two of my favorite players in the entire league. Lavonte David, who you probably know is one of the best linebackers in the NFL, and Paul Worrliow, who is probably the best player in the NFL you have never heard of. We are talking about guys here that are locks for 120+ tackles, and are around the ball enough to get turnovers left and right. With the defensive table as it is, you need your players to get a few huge game altering players- scoring touchdowns, forcing fumbles, recovering fumbles, etc. The guys in the best position to do such, are the guys who are around the ball a lot. David and Worrilow were both beat up a bit last year, but in 2013 David would have earned $7.50 in bonuses on the incredibly hard defensive table. That’s how good these guys can be. That’s leaving out all the other guys on the list, including last years NFL sack leader Justin Houston.

There are plenty of other guys on this list worth a mention, but I’ll let your bids on the IPR be the judge of that. Thanks a lot for reading my crazy opinions, and best of luck on the market.

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