From 100 to 1,000 #7. Moving all in!
Given my starting point time I have to get things done, and pre-season injuries I suffered, I have been doing “pretty well” I would have guessed my portfolio was worth about $200-$250 as of last week. Not bad right? I’m not trying to do not bad, I’m trying to make a epic 10-1 payout in one year. The only way I am going to do that is if I swing for the fences. You all won’t care if I do “really good” and earn $400 you want to see me get all or nothing. With that in mind, I made quite a few transactions, and tied up a bunch of money in two guys. I’d say I’ve certainly moved all in.
We only earned 1.50 in bonuses last month, getting .25 from Sonny Gray, Andrew Mccutchen, and Micheal Brantley. Prior to the turn of the month, we sold Adrian Gonzalez for $8 A gain of about 4$, plus the $1 credit we earned from him in April. Then we made a couple of moves that on the surface appear questionable. We sold Sonny Gray for $7, and $11. But Isn’t Sonny Gray your best guy? He is pretty dang close. And he just pitched another complete game last night making me look like a fool. However, I am worried about his usage down the stretch, and I promise that money got put to good use enacting my master plan. Prior to last night, my guesstimate was $3.5-$5 in bonuses. However if the A’s are just going to let him pitch forever it may be $5-10, which is scary. I also sold my last Matt Carpenter share for $3 getting us a tiny gain, and moved two of my Kenny Britt shares for $2 for another tiny gain. Keep in mind folks, the best time to sell your baseball shares is BEFORE the bonuses come out. If you wait, you won’t get those same prices, that’s for sure.
So what did I do with all this money? Well I went “all in” on two players. I bought Randall Cobb for 17.75, and 6 Joseph Randles for an average cost of 3.05. Wait- I spent 18 dollars on some random garbage running back, and 18 dollars on a possession WR? Your damn right I did. The Cobb plan is something I recently decided to do, based on the incoming list of players of new releases. There are only 3 three players from that list I want to add to this account. Not because they are not valuable, but I only think three of them can help me in my limited time frame of one season. I also am worried about Jordy Nelsons hip surgery degrading his effectiveness a bit. I think this will lead to the rise of Cobb. Not just that, but he also earned 1.25 in monthly bonuses, and 5 in seasonal last year, which is no slouch! People also forget the guy is only TWENTY FOUR! Years old. I think back to two years ago, I literally had an email with the CEO where I said the following: I think if he can stay healthy he is a 100 catch, 1,200 yard type guy. Well I guess I forgot to add twelve freaking TD’s to that. He is a monster, I can’t wait to see him improve again this year, and I’m very excited to have him as my highest bought player.
That brings me to the one that probably really has you scratching your head- Joseph Randle. What if I told you in 2013, no one thought anything of Demarco Murray? He had never played an entire season, and there was massive amounts of discussion about his lack of elite running skill. Really. It was out there. Go look at 2013 articles about him. Now, keep him healthy, in a refocus towards the running game, put him behind the best line in the NFL, and you have 2261 all purpose yards and 13 Tds with a 4.7 YPR. Due to his 6 fumbles, and 30 yards in penalties he only earned a .75 bonus. However, if he fumbled half as many times it would have been a $5 bonus. Only one fumble? $10. So there is certainly some money to be made on Demarco Murray with the Cowboys. As you know, Murray moved on to the Eagles. All winter the talking heads on ESPN talked about how Dallas should have paid him, drafted a running back, traded for Adrian Peterson, signed someone significant, etc. What if the answer is- they already had the guy they wanted at running back, and his name is Joseph Randle. Seriously. Pop in the tape and watch the guy run. He looks like a clone of Demarco. Not even just a little, like a ton like a clone. If anything, he looked like he had more “pop” than Demarco. Obviously this is a small sample size. But if Joseph Randle can even be a portion of Murray, perhaps one with better ball handling skills, we have the biggest bargain in football. This strategy obviously comes with a massive risk. I could have just used a giant portion of my baseball funds on a guy who doesn’t “pop” like we hope. But if I am right, this is our chance to turn 18 bucks into 100 bucks. I am predicting Randle earns a $3.5 bonus (yes you read that right!) and gets his value up to $15 on the market. If I’m right, I have a great shot at actually doing this thing. If I am wrong, or he gets hurt I am a bit in trouble. What do you guys think? Am I going to regret these choices or did I pick the right time to go all in?