How to handle the new releases for Basketball
Jockbrokers IPR’s are one of the best ways to enter the market. They feature young incredibly talented players that more often than not sell cheaper than you can get them on the open market. So how do you handle this crop of players that features some of the biggest names in the NBA’s future? One thing is sure, you don’t want to get left out on the cold on these dudes.
Lets start small. C.J. McCollum, Jae Crowder, Jordan Clarkson, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Justise Winslow. My guess is these 5 are going to have the proverbial “wind taken out of their sails” due to the name value of the other guys on this list. I do think some of these guys could present some real values, for example Crowder and Winslow, and are almost assuredly going to be available at 2-3 bucks. If you think one of these guys is the real deal, I wouldn’t feel bad paying up to $5 on any of them, but you are probably “safe” to get any of them at half of that price. If you want to try to bottom dollar these guys, you may even pick some of them up at $1 or under, however if you get cute and try to hit that “bottom dollar” on these guys, you will probably miss out completely.
Moving forward to the guy who I think has the highest “bust” potential of who is left we have DAngelo Russell. Russell hasn’t looked “smooth” to me any time I have watched him play. When I look at a point guard, I want it to look incredibly natural when the ball is in their hand. I really don’t get that feeling from him. I will freely admit the ceiling is incredibly high for Russell, but I think he could just as easily flame out. The numbers tend to back me up for him so far, though obviously with a 19 year old kid there is incredible amounts of room to grow. Personally, I am going to be saving my war chest on the guys who I see as having less of a downside. Personally there is no way I am willing to spend much more than $5 on Russell, though I could easily see bids going into the $8-15 range on him.
Now on to one that is incredibly hard to figure out- Hassan Whiteside. Here we have a guy who is putting some truly elite numbers, and is looking like he could earn a $1 or $2 seasonal bonus. His blocks and rebounds are off the charts. His true shooting % is really high. He scores a decent enough number of points to earn small bonuses, and he doesn’t turn the ball over. Taken at face value alone, that would probably make him the most valuable player being released. But there is a huge down side to be found here. He is 26. He has played in 108 NBA games in that time. How do you compare that with a 19 year old kid who is seeing a huge number of minutes? Well you really cant. Whiteside doesn’t have any long term upside as far as the hall of fame table goes. Where does that leave him in terms of value? I could easily see him hitting the $5-10 range. I think if you really want him you will need to pay $8 or so. If you are a bit braver, and want to try to knock it out of the park, you can try the bottom end here. Will it work? Your odds aren’t great, but again you lower your risk pretty well.
Finally- The big 3. Kristaps Porzingis, Jahlil Okafor, and Karl-Anthony Towns. Honestly all three of these guys appear on the track to being certified NBA superstars at the ripe old age of 20. Honestly, you have no shot at getting any three of these guys on the “cheap”. I have been going back and forth on how to tell you what order these guys might go in, but it’s really an exercise in BS. Porzingis seems to be the most popular, Towns is playing the best, and Okafor seems to be improving the quickest. Take your pick. Really, I don’t have any sort of crystal ball into the future for these guys price wise, but I don’t see a lot of warning signs where these gentlemen might be anything but amazing for their entire careers. I can see these guys going anywhere between $10-25. At that $10 you have probably a 50/50 shot of not getting the player. I would set my sights higher if you really want these guys. To remove your risk of missing out, I would think closer to $20 or 30. Think about it this way- Wiggins is on par with these guys, in fact probably under-performing them, and he last sold at $25, and is currently selling for $50. There is also only ONE share of him available at that price. People tend to hang on to these superstar young players, so if you want to get them I recommend bidding high. The only chance you might have for a slight discount, is with all three of them being released near each other the hype might drive the price down, but I wouldn’t count on it!
Good luck traders